WASHINGTON — Intelligence agencies worldwide are warning that Taliban rule in Afghanistan is radically reshaping terrorist and militant groups in South Asia and around the world.
Specifically, intelligence and counterterrorism officials say that despite Taliban promises to sever ties with al-Qaida and oppose terror groups such as the Islamic State’s Afghan affiliate, as codified in the 2020 Doha agreement with the United States, there has been scant evidence of progress.
“The Taliban is attempting to maintain pressure on ISIS [Islamic State group],” the top general at U.S. Central Command told lawmakers in Washington on March 15. “They’re finding it difficult to do.”
#Afghanistan – “#ISIS-#Khorasan concerns us” per @CENTCOM’s Gen McKenzie “We know the #Taliban are no friends of ISIS” he says “but it’s unclear” they will be able to contain ISIS
— Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) February 3, 2022
“They’re much less firm on the al-Qaida issue, in terms of opposing them and trying to limit them,” CENTCOM’s General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie added.
A recent United Nations report based on member state intelligence echoed those fears.
“There are no recent signs that the Taliban has taken steps to limit the activities of foreign terrorist fighters in the country,” the report said. “On the contrary, terrorist groups enjoy greater freedom there than at any time in recent history.”
Despite such concerns, some diplomats, such as the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan, have expressed hope the Taliban will crack down.
Thomas West told the U.S. Institute of Peace on Feb. 15 that he believed the Taliban were “very sincere in their intent to contain” Islamic State terrorists.
Here is a look at the Taliban and the major terrorist organizations now operating in Afghanistan, and how they have fared in the six months since U.S. and coalition forces left the country.
Taliban
Since its emergence in 1994, the Taliban movement, which calls itself the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, has been led by an emir, a central figure ostensibly appointed for life by a religious council of Taliban leaders.
Like his two predecessors, the current emir, Hibatullah Akhundzada, has made no public speeches and leads a reclusive life in southern Afghanistan’s Kandahar province. He has left the management of day-to-day government affairs to his appointed caretaker Cabinet in the Afghan capital, Kabul.
Various estimates by U.S. intelligence agencies and United Nations member states put the number of Taliban fighters between 58,000 and 100,000, with numbers fluctuating according to the time of year and battlefield conditions.
A U.N. report issued in June 2021, prior to the U.S. withdrawal, noted the Taliban force size was “robust in spite of significant attrition rates” over the past few years.
The Taliban have also benefited from the presence of some 8,000 to 10,000 foreign fighters in Afghanistan, most of whom are aligned with the Taliban. The Taliban’s defense minister recently said in an interview that the group is trying to build a 110,000-strong army.
Intelligence shared publicly by the United States and United Nations member states further accuses the Taliban of continuing to work closely with al-Qaida and maintaining ties with other terrorist groups, pushing some to become part of a new Taliban-run Afghan military force.
And even if the Taliban are planning to crack down on cells of IS-Khorasan, Islamic State’s affiliate in Afghanistan, they may not have the right capabilities.
“I don’t think what we’ll see from the Taliban will be traditional [counterterrorism] as we think of it,” Colin Clarke, director of research at the global intelligence firm The Soufan Group, told VOA last year.
“It’s much easier to play a spoiler role than to perform effectively in the role of counterinsurgent,” he said. “I think the Taliban could be effective in clearing an area, but it will struggle more with holding it.”
For their part, Taliban officials have publicly denied that terrorism is an issue for Afghans under their leadership.
“We do not see anyone in Afghanistan who has anything to do with al-Qaida,” Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid told a news conference in Kabul last September.
“The ISIS that exists in Iraq and Syria does not exist here,” he added. “We are committed to the fact that from Afghanistan, there will not be any danger to any country.”
Islamic State Khorasan Province
The Islamic State terror group’s Afghan affiliate is a sworn enemy of both the Taliban and al-Qaida, which has deep and long-standing ties to Taliban leadership. But IS-Khorasan is also one of the groups that has benefited the most from the Taliban takeover.
As Taliban forces asserted control over Afghanistan, they emptied out many of the country’s prisons, including the Parwan prison at Bagram Airfield, which had held hundreds of IS-Khorasan fighters.
Taliban commanders quickly executed former IS-Khorasan leader Abu Omar Khorasani, but many other IS followers were allowed to escape.
At the time, U.S. military officials said the prison releases helped swell IS-Khorasan’s ranks from several hundred to at least 2,000 “hardcore” fighters. IS-Khorasan was also blamed for the August 26 bombing at Kabul airport that killed 13 Americans and more than 170 Afghans.
Intelligence shared by U.N. member states suggests that since then, IS-Khorasan has nearly doubled in size, to about 4,000 fighters, half of which may be from outside Afghanistan.
The same intelligence estimates say that the group, which lost all the territory under its control in early 2020, now “controls limited territory in eastern Afghanistan” and that it is “capable of conducting high-profile and complex attacks.”
IS-Khorasan also appears to be benefitting from financial support from its core in Syria and Iraq, receiving more than $500,000 over the past six months, according to some intelligence estimates.
U.S. defense officials have further voiced concern about IS-Khorasan regenerating the capability to launch attacks against the U.S. and other foreign targets, initially warning that the group could launch global operations starting in April 2022.
More recent assessments by U.S. military intelligence officials indicate that the group is more focused at the moment on cementing its support within Afghanistan itself and that IS-Khorasan may not be ready to carry out external operations for another 12-18 months.
Al-Qaida core
Since its initial statement at the end of August congratulating the Taliban on its victory, al-Qaida leadership has been mostly silent on the situation in Afghanistan, though al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri referenced “the defeat of the Americans” in a video released this month.
Zawahiri himself is believed to be hiding in Afghanistan, and intelligence agencies from a number of countries assess he is in ill health.
Intelligence shared with the U.N. for a recent report, however, indicates al-Qaida is benefitting from “a significant boost” due to the U.S. withdrawal and Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.
“Some of its [al-Qaida’s] closest sympathizers within the Taliban now occupy senior positions in the new de facto Afghan administration,” according to the U.N. report, which also says chances are now good that Zawahiri’s likely successor, Saif al-Adel, will seek to leave Iran and establish himself in Afghanistan.
Western counterterrorism estimates from before the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan suggested the al-Qaida core perhaps commanded several hundred fighters across at least 15 Afghan provinces. And in September, a top U.S. intelligence official said that there were “indications of some potential movement of al-Qaida [officials and followers] to Afghanistan,” though, he cautioned, “It’s still early days.”
While U.S. officials remain concerned that al-Qaida will focus again on conducting foreign attacks, a recent report based on U.S. military intelligence assessments indicates that the group has been keeping a low profile at the Taliban’s request, and that the Taliban, who are seeking to gain international recognition for their new government, are likely to dissuade al-Qaida leaders from launching attacks.
Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent
One of al-Qaida’s key offshoots, al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent, has as much of a presence in Afghanistan as the group’s core.
Intelligence estimates from U.N. member states say AQIS has up to 400 fighters in Afghanistan, spread across Ghazni, Helmand, Kandahar, Nimruz, Paktika and Zabul provinces.
AQIS fighters, including native Afghans and fighters from Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and Myanmar (Burma), are said to have fought alongside Taliban against the U.S.-backed government prior to its collapse. Earlier U.S. intelligence assessments said it appeared that AQIS fighters were actively integrated into Taliban units.
AQIS leader Osama Mehmood and AQIS deputy Atif Yahya Ghouri are both thought to reside in Afghanistan.
Source: Voice of America